How long will my money last?
at 4% real growth, in today's money
The pot, month by month, drawing $3,500 a month. The dot is the last month.
A $500k pot drawn at $3,500 a month lasts 16 yr 1 mo at 4.0% real growth. Drawing $1,637 a month or less, it never runs out.
- It runs your pot down month by month at the spending you enter, against the return and the inflation you enter.
- The date it hits zero moves much further on a small change in spending than on a big change in return. Try both and see.
- It assumes a steady return. Real markets do not deliver one, which is why the date is a guide and not a promise.
The cliff between years and forever
At $3,500 a month the pot lasts 16 yr 1 mo. Draw $500 less and it lasts 20 yr 2 mo; at or under $1,637/mo it never runs out.
The withdrawal ladder
Same pot and growth; only the monthly draw changes. Your draw is marked.
| Drawing / month | The pot lasts | Withdrawal rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,000 | 43 yr 7 mo | 4.8% of the pot / yr | |
| $2,500 | 27 yr 2 mo | 6.0% of the pot / yr | |
| $3,000 | 20 yr 2 mo | 7.2% of the pot / yr | |
| $3,500 | 16 yr 1 mo | 8.4% of the pot / yr | |
| $4,000 | 13 yr 6 mo | 9.6% of the pot / yr | |
| $5,000 | 10 yr 2 mo | 12.0% of the pot / yr | |
| $6,000 | 8 yr 2 mo | 14.4% of the pot / yr |
Questions people ask
How long will my money last?
Why can money last forever?
Is this in today's money?
How does this relate to the 4% rule?
What should I do if the runway is too short?
Method and sources
- Standard drawdown arithmeticMonthly simulation to zero
The calculation
The pot compounds monthly at your real growth rate and the withdrawal leaves monthly. The answer is when the balance first reaches zero; the forever line is the draw at which growth exactly replaces it.
What these figures do not cover
- Steady real growth is assumed; a bad early sequence shortens real runways.
- Taxes on withdrawals depend on your accounts and country.
- Durations past 60 years are shown as 60+ rather than pretended precise.
Last updated July 2026.
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